Bluejays set sights on Purple Aces in MVC action

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/07/2012 - Evansville, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Knocked down a few of pegs in the latest top-25 poll, the Creighton Bluejays now head to Evansville ranked as the 17th- best team in the nation as they clash with the Purple Aces in Missouri Valley Conference action tonight at the Ford Center.

Since losing to Missouri State in the conference opener back on December 28, the Bluejays had put together a sizeable 11-game win streak which was one of the longest in Division I, but that all came crashing down over the weekend. On Saturday afternoon, Creighton was stumped by Northern Iowa on the road, 65-62, which means the Jays are now 11-2 in MVC play and that has them tied with Wichita State at the top of the league standings entering the week.

As for the Purple Aces, in a span of just three days the team went to the extremes and have now lost three of their last four outings. Six days ago, the squad leveled Bradley on the road by a score of 92-62, but then on Saturday Evansville was halted by Southern Illinois in a 53-52 final and that has the team now staring at a 6-7 conference record, which has them tied with Northern Iowa and Drake for fifth place at the moment.

The Jays are comfortably ahead in the all-time series with Evansville, posting 25 wins in 34 opportunities. The Aces have certainly played better in their own building over the years with seven victories, but still Creighton has won the last three on the road. Overall, the Bluejays have taken six in a row, including a 75-69 final in the most recent matchup last season.

Aside from a single 60-56 win for Evansville at home back in 2008, the series has been dominated by the Jays (12-1) since 2005. The teams are set to meet on Creighton's home floor two weeks from now to complete the season series.

Doug McDermott put together a solid double-double for the Bluejays with 18 points and 12 rebounds, yet he didn't lead his own team in either category exclusively and that should have been reason enough to believe it wasn't Creighton's day on Saturday. Matching McDermott on the glass was Gregory Echenique, and surpassing him in the scoring department was Antoine Young who dropped in 23 points, shooting 9-of-21 from the floor, as the group made good on 42.1 percent from the field and just 5-of-16 behind the three-point line. McDermott, one of the top scorers in the country (23.4 ppg) who is widely considered a candidate for player of the year honors on a national scale, is one of the hardest players to cover for a defense because he is equally as dangerous in the paint with his 8.4 rpg as he is out on the perimeter with a staggering 51.3 percent shooting from three-point range. Because of his efforts, the Jays as a whole are making good on 44.8 percent beyond the arc as they net an average of 81.0 ppg.

Over the course of just a few days, the Purple Aces had their scoring output nearly cut in half as they fell to SIU in Carbondale, shooting just 18-of-44 from the floor which means they finished with just two more made baskets than they had turnovers. Colt Ryan posted 13 points and Kenny Harris another 10 for the Aces, the former accounting for two of the unit's four three-point baskets. Ryan has been the leading scorer for the team in each of the last three games and five of the last six contests, his 20.8 ppg making him one of the top overall performers in the MVC this season. Not only does Ryan connect at 43.2 percent behind the three-point line, he is also one of the team leaders with 71 assists and 4.5 rpg, doing everything he can to make Evansville successful. Unfortunately, with the defense giving up 72.3 ppg and the offense posting 74.1 ppg, Ryan and his teammates don't leave much room for error.

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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